Australia-India route seasonality: how Air India & Qantas approach seasonality with differing strategies
Last week, Air India announced the temporary/seasonal suspension of their 3x weekly Mumbai-Melbourne flight that they inaugurated in December 2023. This suspension surprised many as the flight had performed reasonably well with a load factor of 87% in the 12 months to November 2024, similar to the 88% that Air India’s Delhi-Melbourne and Delhi-Sydney flights achieved.
Ostensibly, the reason for the suspension isn’t the poor performance of the route (it is returning in September 2025, although more recent schedule fillings suggest this may also be a temporary return), but rather due to the need to reduce the B787-8 flying schedule to allow the aircraft to begin a much awaited cabin refurbishment alongside heavy maintenance checks. Notably, the first B787 refurbishment is due to be completed in September 2025.
So why did Mumbai-Melbourne get the chop? Let’s delve into some data around the Australia-India market, seasonality and airline networks to understand a little more. This will also help us explore the different strategies that Air India and Qantas utilise between India and Australia. It turns out to be a great case study on how two airlines can successfully operate the same routes with somewhat different strategies!
The booming Australia-India market
As we covered in a previous analysis, the Australia-India market has grown phenomenally in the last decade. The most recent ABS data shows that visitors from India to Australia increased 87% in the 12 months to November 2024 compared to the same period ending November 2015. Travel by Australian residents to India has increased 94% during the same period.
Indian visitors now account for 5.3% of visitor arrivals in Australia compared to 3.2% a decade ago. Australian visitors to India now account for 4.7% of Australian visits abroad, up from 3.0% a decade ago. This highlights the phenomenal growth in travel between the countries as well as the increasing importance of the market, at least to Australia.
What’s noticeable from the data is that besides the growth the market is particualrly seasonal. For example, January 2024 saw 138,560 arrivals in Australia from India, 2.9 and 2.4 times the relative minimums of 48,590 and 58,310 in July 2023 and July 2024, respectively.
Also of consequence is that direct capacity between Australia and India (by Air India and Qantas) accounts for only a fraction of the total demand. In the year to November 2024, Air India and Qantas passengers amounted to just 31% of the total arrivals, however this was significantly higher than the 15% a decade before. This is indicative of the substantial increase in capacity by both Air India and Qantas, particularly in the post-pandemic period.
So how do the Air India and Qantas handle the seasonality? Interestingly, they approach it very differently with Qantas paying more attention to varying capacity throughout the year while Air India maintain consistent capacity. For example, Air India maintained consistent capacity between April 2022 and November 2023, reflecting daily B787-8 flights between Delhi and Melbourne/Sydney. Capacity increased in December 2023 as Mumbai-Melbourne was added. As we’ll see this isn’t a critique of Air India, but rather will highlight the different network approaches and strategies.
Qantas’s capacity has fluctuated since the inauguration of Melbourne-Delhi in December 2021, and Sydney-Bengaluru in September 2022. Capacity fluctuations result from frequency modulation and adjustment of gauge (i.e. flexibility between the smaller A330-200 and larger A330-300 on Sydney-Bengaluru. Official timetable data (see below) show the frequency variation between seasons with Qantas’s frequencies in the NW season (November through March) exceeding those of the preceding NS season (April through October).
Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts’s international airlines timetable summary:
NS 2022
MEL-DEL 4-5x weeklyNW 2022/23
MEL-DEL 4x weekly
SYD-BLR 4x weekly
Total 8x weeklyNS 2023
MEL-DEL 3-4x weekly
SYD-BLR 3-4x weekly
Total 6-8x weeklyNW 2023/24
MEL-DEL 3-6x weekly
SYD-BLR 5x weekly
Total 8-11x weeklyNS 2024
MEL-DEL 3x weekly
SYD-BLR 5x weekly
Total 8x weeklyNW 2024/25
MEL-DEL 3x weekly
SYD-BLR 5-7x weekly
Total 8-10x weekly
So why do Qantas vary capacity seasonally while Air India don’t? The answer is actually pretty simple: NETWORKS!
More on seasonality and networks
The seasonality in the demand for travel between India and Australia peaks in the Australian summer (e.g. December and January), ostensibly lining up with the traditional Christmas and New Year holiday period. This runs counter cyclically to the seasonality in demand for travel between Australia and Europe which peaks in the European summer (July through September). Furthermore, the scale of the Australia-Europe market is significantly larger than Australia-India. But why is this comparison important?
Qantas have a significant European network, with daily non-stop flights between Perth and London, and daily one-stop flights between Sydney and London via Singapore. Furthermore, they offer year-round non-stop Perth-Paris flights (3x weekly) and seasonal non-stop Perth-Rome flights (3x weekly). In addition, they also drive significant capacity through codeshare connections via Bangkok, Hong Kong and Singapore (see below). Notably, Qantas don’t provide any onward codeshare connections to Europe from Delhi or Bengaluru.
Bangkok
Inbound: Brisbane (JQ), Melbourne (JQ), Perth (JQ), Sydney (QF)
Outbound: Amsterdam (KL), Paris (AF), Tel Aviv (LY)Hong Kong
Inbound: Melbourne (QF), Sydney (QF)
Outbound: Amsterdam (KL), Paris (AF)Singapore
Inbound: Brisbane (QF), Darwin (QF), Melbourne (QF, JQ), Perth (QF, JQ), Sydney (QF)
Outbound: Amsterdam (KL), Helsinki (AY), London (QF), Paris (AF)
Meanwhile, Air India offer significant connecting opportunities from Dehli to/from Europe (Amsterdam, Birmingham, Copenhagen, Frankfurt, London, Milan, Paris and Zurich), albeit not all are the convenient (more about that later). From Mumbai, connections are only offered to/from Frankfurt and London.
So the argument goes that Air India balance seasonal traffic variations between Australia and India by utilising connecting options to/from Europe given the counter-cyclicality of the seasonal flows. Therefore they aim to maintain revenue earning in the Australia and India low-season by selling more space between Australia and Europe.
Meanwhile, Qantas reduce Australia-India capacity during low season to allow a redistribution of that capacity elsewhere in the network, including seasonal capacity to Rome. While Rome is not served with the same aircraft as Delhi or Bengaluru, the capacity is fungible across the network.
But what evidence is there to support this hypothesis?
We come bearing receipts
In the Australia-India high season (between December and February), Qantas supplied between 21,000 and 24,000 seats per month between Australia and India (both directions combined), generating respectable load factors of between 84% and 91%. Through the rest of the year (March through November), they supplied a relatively consistent volume of seats, averaging about 17,000 per month, while achieving even higher load factors of between 89% and 95%. That’s cute: the low season load factor is higher than the high season load factor!
Yet, Air India’s consistent capacity met with much greater fluctuations in load factors. Between December and February, they enjoyed higher load factors of between 90% and 92%. Meanwhile, between March and November they saw load factors decline, reaching as low as 80% in July, and 82% in May and August. So Air India’s high season loads were higher than Qantas as they didn’t boost capacity, but their low season capacity was high than Qantas.
Importantly, breaking this down by route and direction gleans more interesting variations, particularly on the outbound (from Australia to India) showing how Mumbai appears to suffer due to its weaker ability to compensate the low season Australia-India flows with connections to/from Europe (with just two destinations). Data that we previously shared on social media clearly highlights the differential impact.
Notably, all ports underperform on the inbound legs (India to Australia) during the India-Australia low season (i.e Australia-Europe high season). This was likely due to poor connections in Delhi. Air India have recently revised schedules to improve connectivity. For example, AI309 MEL-DEL used to arrive at DEL at 5:15pm, missing connections to Paris (1:05pm). The retiming of AI309 to arrive at DEL at 3:35am, with a retimed departure for Paris at 4:55am now allows for more aligned European connections.
We anticipate a significant improvement in inbound loads between May and August on Delhi-Melbourne/Sydney in the coming year. We’ll let the data test the validy of the hypothesis in a few months time!
Is it apples to apples, or apples to oranges?
The leitmotif of this analysis isn’t whether Air India or Qantas are better. What it is is a case study in comparing apples with apples. Even on the same routes between Australia and India, Air India and Qantas are apples and oranges. They’re different airlines with different strategies, operations and networks.
Air India’s network strategy focuses on consistent capacity but distributing that capacity between India-Australia O&D during the India-Australia high season, and utilising their hub to balance the seasonal flows. Recent network adjustments are designed to improve connections to make their schedule better aligned to support this strategy. However, this also means that when Air India need to reclaim fleet time for cabin refurbishments during the India-Australia low season, Mumbai-Melbourne is the easiest to drop since it simply doesn’t have the same network effect to/from Europe that Delhi-Melbourne/Sydney has.
Meanwhile, Qantas don’t have the same challenges as they modulate their India-Australia capacity and don’t utilise their India operations for onward connections to/from Europe. Simply put, they have a different model and strategy!