Australia-India route seasonality: how Air India & Qantas approach seasonality with differing strategies

Last week, Air India announced the temporary/seasonal suspension of their 3x weekly Mumbai-Melbourne flight that they inaugurated in December 2023. This suspension surprised many as the flight had performed reasonably well with a load factor of 87% in the 12 months to November 2024, similar to the 88% that Air India’s Delhi-Melbourne and Delhi-Sydney flights achieved.

Ostensibly, the reason for the suspension isn’t the poor performance of the route (it is returning in September 2025, although more recent schedule fillings suggest this may also be a temporary return), but rather due to the need to reduce the B787-8 flying schedule to allow the aircraft to begin a much awaited cabin refurbishment alongside heavy maintenance checks. Notably, the first B787 refurbishment is due to be completed in September 2025.

So why did Mumbai-Melbourne get the chop? Let’s delve into some data around the Australia-India market, seasonality and airline networks to understand a little more. This will also help us explore the different strategies that Air India and Qantas utilise between India and Australia. It turns out to be a great case study on how two airlines can successfully operate the same routes with somewhat different strategies!