How much of a hub is Auckland to Qantas?
Some interesting data from Auckland-New York
Qantas Group have an extensive trans-Tasman network connecting 16 city pairs between Australia and New Zealand utilising the Qantas, QantasLink and Jetstar brands. The bulk of this capacity of this capacity is centred on Auckland with Qantas flights from Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney, and Jetstar flights from Brisbane, Gold Coast, Melbourne, and Sydney, and new flights from Sunshine Coast later this year.
In addition to its trans-Tasman capacity, Jetstar also provide domestic and regional services in New Zealand, connecting Auckland with Christchurch, Dunedin, Queenstown and Wellington, and Rarotonga in the Cook Islands. Furthermore, Qantas have access to Air New Zealand domestic capacity via a codeshare, but this is only accessible as domestic connections on a trans-Tasman itinerary.
In June 2023, Qantas inaugurated a new flight from Sydney to New York operating via Auckland. New York is not a new destination for Qantas and the flight via Auckland is not particularly novel. Let’s explore this a little more …
Qantas to New York
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, one of Qantas’s daily flights to Los Angeles would continue onto New York. For many years this flight originated in Sydney but when Sydney-Los Angeles was switched from the B747-400 to the A380, the Los Angeles-New York leg switched to the Brisbane originating aircraft as this flight continued operating with a B747-400. The continuing Los Angeles-New York leg still operated with the Sydney-Los Angeles flight number, despite it actually being a continuation of the Brisbane-Los Angele flight!
OUTBOUND: AUSTRALIA TO THE UNITED STATES
QF 15 BNE LAX 10:10am - 6:00am B744
QF 93 MEL LAX 9:40am - 6:25am A380
QF 11 SYD LAX 10:10am - 6:00am A380
QF 11 LAX JFK 8:20am - 4:40pm B744
RETURN: UNITED STATES TO AUSTRALIA
QF 12 JFK LAX 6:00pm - 8:55pm B744
QF 16 LAX BNE 11:20pm - 6:05am+2 B744
QF 94 LAX MEL 10:40pm - 8:30am+2 A380
QF 12 LAX SYD 10:30pm - 7:30am+2 A380The schedule highlights how Los Angeles served as a scissor hub for Qantas as they were allowed to connect incoming traffic from Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney onto New York. Qantas didn’t have local traffic rights and thus couldn’t sell standalone tickets between Los Angeles and New York, nor could they sell this leg as a connecting flight to other carriers. In fact they were fined by by the US Department of Transport for incorrectly selling the Los Angeles-New York flight as a connecting flight on Qantas codeshare flights operated by other carriers.
Qantas to the United States via New Zealand
This is also not the first time that Qantas have operated fifth freedom flights to the United States via New Zealand. Between 2005 and 2012 they operated from Melbourne to Los Angeles via Auckland (QF25/26). This was in addition to the daily non-stop Melbourne-Los Angeles flights (QF 93/94).
Prior to 2005, this flight originated in Brisbane and/or Sydney and was a legacy of restricted bilateral access to the US before the implementation of the Australia-United States open skies agreement in 2008. After open skies, capacity was progressively shifted towards additional non-stop flight between Australia and the United States as competition and capacity boomed.
But the question remains, why did Qantas switch the Los Angeles-New York connection to Auckland-New York?
There are several reasons that we might speculatively propose:
Have you ever connected at Los Angeles? Los Angeles is not the most popular connecting option for Australian passengers, especially when one’s domestic connection requires a terminal change from the Tom Bradley International Terminal (Terminal B) to Terminals 4 or 5 (for connections on American Airlines) or Terminal 6 (for connections on Alaska Airlines). However, the onwards New York flights was located in the same terminal as the incoming flights limiting the pain of the terminal change.
Immigration, customs, baggage recheck and the nightmare that is US airport security. Connecting at Los Angeles requires conducting immigration and customs formalities, rechecking baggage and clearing US airport security before reboarding. Connecting international to international at Auckland is a relative breeze, only requiring immigration and customs formalities at your final destination. While the Los Angeles connection meant arriving in New York as a domestic flight, it still “may” have been preferable to skip Los Angeles altogether. Furthermore, the onward flight wouldn’t be subject to delays resulting from slow passenger processing at Los Angeles.
More connections and local traffic. The Los Angeles connection only allowed onward connections for Qantas traffic (not Qantas coded traffic, but Qantas carried traffic). Auckland opens up more connecting options, including Qantas and Jetstar’s own flights as well as interline traffic. Furthermore, Qantas may also sell the flight as a standalone attracting local traffic to/from Auckland. Let’s explore this a little more …
As noted earlier, in addition to Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney, Qantas and Jetstar also connect Auckland to Gold Coast (and Sunshine Coast in the coming months). As these weren’t directly connected to Los Angeles they weren’t previously available as a one-stop options to New York. Additionally, Jetstar also connect Auckland to domestic destinations in New Zealand, offering connections from Christchurch, Queenstown and Wellington onto the New York flight. As shown in the schedule, Dunedin and Rarotonga don’t generate viable connections on outbound.
OUTBOUND: AUSTRALIA TO THE UNITED STATES VIA AUCKLAND
JQ 292 ZQN AKL 10:45am - 12:35pm
JQ 234 CHC AKL 11:25am - 12:45pm
JQ 258 WLG AKL 12:20pm - 1:25pm
QF 3 SYD AKL 9:10am – 2:05pm
QF 119 BNE AKL 9:10am – 2:20pm
JQ 131 OOL AKL 9:35am – 2:35pm
QF 151 MEL AKL 9:25am – 2:55pm
QF 3 AKL JFK 4:05pm – 4:20pm
Minimum connection times:
I-I: 0:55
D-I: 1:15 (QF-JQ 2:00)
RETURN: UNITED STATES TO AUSTRALIA VIA AUCKLAND
QF 4 JFK AKL 7:20pm – 5:00am⁺²
QF 152 AKL MEL 6:10am – 8:20am
QF 120 AKL BNE 6:15am – 8:10am
JQ 253 AKL WLG 6:45am – 7:50am
QF 4 AKL SYD 7:00am – 8:35am
JQ 132 AKL OOL 7:00am – 8:35am
JQ 295 AKL ZQN 8:15am – 10:10am
JQ 229 AKL CHC 9:25am – 10:50am
Minimum connection times:
I-I: 0:55
I-D: 1:30 (QF-JQ 1:45)The Auckland hub generates 8 one-stop or non-stop city pairs between Australia, New Zealand and New York compared to just 3 previously. It does this in a similar flight time (quicker on some routes, slower on others), and arguably in an otherwise superior manner. Furthermore, the onward leg to Sydney can also be sold to local traffic, unlikely Los Angeles-New York leg that is otherwise a dead leg.
Route performance
Qantas aren’t the only carrier on the Auckland-New York route. Air New Zealand have flown the route since September 2022, having launched the route as a 3x weekly flight in March 2022 aboard a B787-9.
Shortly before the inaugural flight, Qantas announced that it would also enter the route with a 3x weekly flight operated by a B787-9 aircraft, however flights would begin several months later in June 2023.
Air New Zealand’s frequency has remained unchanged. It’s frequency growth has been limited due to acute fleet shortages that have resulted in the cancellation of other new routes (for example Chicago).
Meanwhile, Qantas have overcome their short term fleet challenges to increase service to 4x weekly from November 2023. It planned to increase services to a daily frequency from August 2024, however this was scaled back to 6x weekly, effective October 2024.
Route performance has varied dramatically. Since inaugurating the route in September 2022, Air New Zealand have averaged load factors of 78% on the outbound leg, but only 52% on the return leg (combined 65% load factor). Load factors on the return leg may also be complicated by larger payload restrictions as Air New Zealand’s B787-9 employs a higher cabin density, carrying more passengers than Qantas’s lower density layout.
Meanwhile, since beginning the route in June 2023, Qantas have averaged load factors of 74% on the outbound leg, and a significantly higher 77% on the return leg (combined 76% load factor). Air New Zealand’s load factors have weakened marginally since Qantas entered the route. During the same period, Air New Zealand have averaged load factors of 77% on the outbound leg and 50% on the return leg (combined 64% load factor).
Can we measure connecting passengers?
Yes we can! The analysis in the preceding figures used data on arrivals to and departures from New York, as reported by official US data. It provides estimates of passengers carried and seats available by each airline. In the case of Qantas’s flights, it’s only measuring the passengers between New York and Sydney. On the inbound it doesn’t care where they originated and for the return flight it doesn’t care where they are connecting onto.
Meanwhile, official Australian data provides estimates of passengers carried on Qantas’s Sydney-Auckland-New York flight, reporting passengers between Sydney and New York separately from passengers between Sydney and Auckland. Using the former, and calculating the difference between the US and Australian data in a given month allows estimation of Sydney-New York passengers and local and connecting passengers at Auckland separately. The data can’t segment those Auckland passengers between local and connecting, or where they connected to/from.
On the outbound leg, the data synchronise easily since the flight departs Sydney and arrives in New York on the same day. However, on the return leg, the flight arrives back in Sydney two days after leaving New York. This limits synchronisation of the data on the return leg as both data sources are aggregated by month. For accuracy, we limit this analysis to just outbound from Australia to the United States (and inbound to the United States), but this will nonetheless be instructive.
So what does the data tell us?
The data shows a very interesting result and trend. Connecting and local traffic at Auckland has grown considerably (quicker) than Sydney originating traffic. Since starting the route, approximately 43% of passengers originated in Sydney, while 57% either originated in or connected at Auckland. The trends a over time show a meaningful increase in Auckland originating and connecting traffic.
For the first seven months of the route’s operation (to December 2023), 53% of passengers originated in or connected at Auckland. However, since January 2024, 63% of passengers originated in or connected at Auckland. The trend has shown a consistently increasing proportion from 50% in November 2023 to 65% in April 2024. This coincides with the increase in frequency from 3x to 4x weekly that occurred in November 2023, suggesting that most additional capacity has been taken up from Auckland connecting or originating traffic.
Conclusion
The increase in frequency from 4x to 6x weekly in October 2024 was scheduled as far back as February, Qantas have recently been on a media blitz to promote the increase in frequency. In a recent interview with the NZ Herald, Qantas highlighted that “as many as 20% of seats are being booked by Kiwis” on their Auckland-New York flights. In the context of the analysis outlined here, this figure seems credible. Even more interesting was Qantas’s comment that traffic from New Zealand is growing, again this us supported by the analysis here.
Returning to the title of this analysis, how much of a hub is Auckland to Qantas?
It’s certainly not a hub to the same degree as Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth or Sydney, Auckland is an important hub for Qantas. In addition to connecting New Zealand traffic onto it’s trans-Tasman network via its own domestic flights on the Jetstar brand, they are now expanding towards long haul connections as Auckland effectively connects New York bound traffic from Australia. However, we shouldn’t over interpret this.
Firstly, the success of the Auckland-New York flight is no predictor of success for other potential fifth freedom flights. The flight replaces an existing New York flight with a more efficient operation. There are no other flights which would obviously benefit in the same way as all other Qantas flights east of New Zealand (including Canada, Chile and the United States) operate as non-stop flights. Furthermore, there are not additional eastbound one-stop flights that Qantas have shown an interest in.
Secondly, there has been no indication from Qantas of their interest in continuing the flight once a non-stop Sydney-New York flight becomes a reality once the Project Sunrise A350-1000s are delivered. In addition to Sydney originating passengers shifting to the non-stop, the non-stop may also attract the domestic feed from Brisbane, Gold Cost and Melbourne, connecting at Sydney. This leaves a much smaller amount of the local New Zealand traffic, limiting the viability of the flight. Unless this traffic grows dramatically, this suggests that the Auckland-New York flight is a temporary, albeit very successful fix to Qantas’s New York route. The local traffic is probably just a bit of gravy!