Last week we headed off on a work trip to West Africa for a regional workshop, a trip we generally do annually. Normally we'd take Emirates, offering the shortest journey with the fewest stops. We didn’t want to risk getting stuck in Dubai for a few days, so caution prevailed to placate Mrs Analytic Flying, and avoid the Middle East!
Instead, we headed to Singapore on Qantas, and from there on Ethiopian Airlines via Addis Ababa. Our Melbourne-Singapore flight was operated by VH-EBC, one of Qantas’s oldest A330-200s. Sadly, it’s likely our last flight on “Surfers Paradise” as she’s headed for retirement in the coming weeks along with her sister ship VH-EBD early next year.
These aren’t the only Qantas widebody retirements expected in the coming years as 36 widebody aircraft are due for delivery from early next year. There have been persistent rumours that Qantas are planning to accelerate the retirement of the A380 fleet, possibly as soon as 2029. The A380 had previously been slated for retirement starting in 2032, and its replacement capacity not yet confirmed, but covered by purchase options attached to the existing order book.
It’s no secrete that Qantas would like to accelerate the A380s retirement. Urgency has increased in recent months driven by higher fuel prices due to the conflict in the Middle East and ongoing operational reliability challenges, but accelerating its retirement is constrained by the availability of replacement capacity.
The increasing urgency is supported by a Reuters report in June that Qantas were in talks with both Airbus and Boeing for an order for an additional 20 B787 and/or A350 aircraft. The trail has done quiet, but with Qantas’s annual results due for release this week it’s also as good a time as ever to make sense of what’s happening with the Qantas widebody fleet.
We’re interested in several aspects including the current replacement capacity on order, the timing of these deliveries in the context of additional delays, and the ability to extend the life of the current fleet by considering the tradeoffs around heavy maintenance intervals.