Surprised or not surprised? Qantas schedules A380 flights to Johannesburg in 2024

Qantas recently announced the deployment of the A380 on flights between Sydney (SYD) and Johannesburg (JNB) effective 7 July 2024. The move surprised many observers who perceived it as a significant upgrade from the B789-9, with the 485 seat A380 carrying significantly more passengers than the 236 seat B787-9. While it is a significant increase in gauge this analysis shows that when combined with Qantas’s careful capacity management and the indefinite absence of South African Airways (SAA) from Australia, the net increase in capacity is limited, and may even result in a net reduction in capacity. This analysis considers the history of routes between Australia and South Africa, analysing capacity, gauge, network as well as important competitive and strategic considerations.

History of Qantas and SAA operations between Australia and South Africa

Qantas and SAA both have a long history flying between Australia and South Africa, beginning in the 1940s and 1950s. Following the political isolation of South Africa and the implementation of sanctions against the Apartheid government, Qantas suspended flights to South Africa in 1976. These flights were eventually replaced with services to neighbouring Harare (HRE) in Zimbabwe in 1982. SAA continued to serve Australia until 1987 before landing rights in Australia were revoked. After the fall of Apartheid, Qantas and SAA returned to operate routes between Australia and South Africa in 1992. Qantas maintained a dual operation to both South Africa and Zimbabwe for an additional 18 months, exiting Zimbabwe altogether in 1993.