The (niche) case for the A380

Why the A380 still makes sense for British Airways

In a recent route announcement, British Airways made changes to its Cape Town schedule that went largely unnoticed. In many respects, the change aren’t noteworthy: BA is increasing its seasonal capacity between London and Cape Town and switching some of the seasonal capacity from Gatwick to Heathrow.

South Africa is an important market for BA with multiple daily flights to both Johannesburg and Cape Town. At times it has also served Durban and had, until their demise in early 2020, a unique franchise agreement with Comair who operated domestic and regional services under the BA brand.

BA typically schedule overnight flights in both directions requiring a long ground time in South Africa. Ostensibly, overnight flights are more popular with travellers, particularly business travellers, helping BA generating stronger yields in the premium cabins. Overnight flights are also more efficient for connecting traffic at Heathrow, including connections to/from the rest of Europe and North American flights fed by BA and American Airlines’s massive trans Atlantic network (BA have a joint venture partnership with AA).

Johannesburg and Cape Town are also very different destinations, with business travel and domestic and regional connections focused on Johannesburg and leisure travel heavily focussed on Cape Town. As a result, Johannesburg’s schedule and capacity is consistent across seasons, including the current northern summer (NS 24) and forthcoming northern winter (NW 24/25) seasons. Cape Town’s schedule and capacity increases from a single daily flight during the current NS 24 season and increases to between two and three daily flights during the forthcoming NW 24/25 season.

So where does the A380 come into all of this?

Firstly, let’s consider Johannesburg schedule and capacity. BA provides a total of 5075 seats per week in each direction between Heathrow and Johannesburg. This capacity is scheduled to remain stable between NS 24 and NW 24-25 as the two daily flights will be operated by a B777-300ER and A380 in both seasons. The timing variations are due to daylight savings time in the UK which is coordinated with the IATA scheduling seasons, while South Africa doesn’t implement daylight savings time.

NS 24

BA 55 LHR JNB 7:05pm 7:15am+1 B77W D
BA 57 LHR JNB 9:25pm 9:25am+1 A388 D
BA 56 JNB LHR 7:20pm 5:30am+1 A388 D
BA 54 JNB LHR 9:05pm 7:25am+1 B77W D

NW 24-25

BA 55 LHR JNB  6:35pm  7:30am+1 B77W D
BA 57 LHR JNB  9:15pm 10:20am+1 A388 D
BA 56 JNB LHR  7:45pm  5:00am+1 A388 D
BA 54 JNB LHR 10:05pm  7:35am+1 B77W D

Capacity to Cape Town is subject to significant seasonal variations. Only a single daily flight is scheduled during NS 24, operated by an A350-1000 providing 2317 seats per week in each direction between Heathrow and Cape Town. During NW 24-25, frequency increases to between 2 and 3 daily flights. NW 24-25 starts with double daily flights on B77W and B777-200ER aircraft, providing 3437 seats per week in each direction. From the middle of December this is supplemented by a 3x weekly B777 flight (BA 2041/2042) operating from Gatwick rather than Heathrow. This seasonal flight has operated for several years and utilises the a higher density B772 configuration (272 passengers compared to 235). With this flight, weekly capacity is increased by 816 seats per week to a total of 4253 seats in each direction.

In a departure from previous NW seasons, BA will terminate the 3x weekly Gatwick flight in early January 2025 replacing it with a third daily Heathrow-Cape Town flight (BA 45/44) operated by a B787-8 aircraft. While the B787-8 is smaller than the B772 (214 passengers compared to 272) it will add capacity by operating at a higher frequency, providing a total of 4935 seats per week. This flight will operate through the end of the NW 24-25 and can be considered a permanent change.

NS 24

BA 59 LHR CPT 10:25pm 11:00am+1 A35K D
BA 58 CPT LHR  6:55pm  5:40am+1 A35K D

NW 24-25

BA 43   LHR CPT  6:25pm  8:00am+1 B77W D
BA 2041 LGW CPT  8:30pm 10:20am+1 B777 T,F,Su (13/12/2024 to 7/1/2025)
BA 45   LHR CPT  8:40pm 10:20am+1 B788 D (from 10/1/2025)
BA 59   LHR CPT 10:25pm 12:10pm+1 B777 D
BA 58   CPT LHR  6:45pm  4:55am+1 B777 D
BA 2040 CPT LGW  7:40pm  5:50am+1 B777 M,W,Sa (14/12/2024 to 8/1/2025)
BA 42   CPT LHR  8:55pm  7:00am+1 B77W D
BA 44   CPT LHR 10:00pm  8:05am+1 B788 D (from 11/1/2025)

Again, where does the A380 come into all of this? Twice daily Heathrow-Johannesburg flights will provide 5075 seats per week in each direction. Meanwhile, from early January BA will operate three daily flights to Cape Town, providing a nearly identical 4935 seats per week! So, why doesn’t BA consolidate the B777 (BA 59/58) and B788 (BA 45/44) flights into a single A380 flight and simply operate an identical schedule to it’s Johannesburg operation?

This would generate considerable savings! It would save a Heathrow slot pair but also significantly reduce operational costs by reducing overall crew requirements, S&T costs, and significantly reduce total fleet time since only one aircraft would be lost to the long and idle ground time at Cape Town (at present, the B777 spends 6.5 hours on the ground in Cape Town, while the B788 will spend nearly 12 hours on the ground).

The loss of scheduling and network redundancy should be considered too. However the time difference between the outbound departure times (of BA 45 and 59) is less than two hours and the time difference between the inbound arrivals (between BA 58 and 44) is approximately three hours. While not dramatic, this is meaningful and should be considered alongside the cost savings.

JNB    F   J   W    Y   Total
B77W   56  532 280  924 1792
A380   98  679 385 2121 3283
Total 154 1211 665 3045 5075
       3%  24% 13%  60%

CPT    F   J   W    Y   Total
B777   56  343 280  966 1645
B77W   56  532 280  924 1792
B788    0  245 175 1078 1498
Total 112 1120 735 2968 4938
       2%  23% 15%  60%

Diff  +42  +91 -70  +77 +140

There is also a consideration of the premium mix between the options. However, the difference between the two options is not hugely significant. The twice daily B77W/A380 combination will provide more first and business class seats each week than the three times daily B777/B77W/B788 combination, while the latter will provide more premium economy seats each week. Somewhat surprisingly, the former provides more economy class seats each week.

Shot, chaser

This makes a somewhat convincing case for BA to consolidate three daily flights into two by utilising the larger A380 on one of the flights alongside a B77W in the same way they do at Johannesburg. There is an exogenous problem with this plan: Cape Town International Airport is not capable of handling the A380! Taxiways at Cape Town don’t provide sufficient clearance for the A380s wingspan of 80m. By comparison, the B747-400, A340-600 and B77W’s wingspans are 64m, 63m and 65m.

Plans to upgrade Cape Town to make it A380 capable were included in a new runway project originally scheduled for completion in 2015. This project has been delayed several times and plans now likely exclude the significant capital expenditure required for the A380 due to its declining popularity. The reasons and details are somewhat moot since the the airport is simple not A380 capable at present.

The A380 serves a useful purpose for BA

So BA is stuck with needing three daily flights to provide their required and optimal capacity to Cape Town, burning a valuable Heathrow slot (peak times no less) and significant aircraft time to achieve this. The corollary to this is that it is able to provide similar capacity to Johannesburg with two daily flights rather than three, saving the slots and ground time. As recently as 2019, both of BA’s Johannesburg flights were both operated by A380s!

The A380’s usefulness to BA is predominantly determined by the scarcity of Heathrow slots. It is particularly useful on routes where it needs the capacity but doesn’t gain significantly from higher frequency services. For example, BA operate seven daily flights between Heathrow and New York JFK, none of which are operated by the A380, with all flights operated by various B777s. BA distribute that capacity throughout the day with westbound departures spread from 8:20am to 7:05pm, and an eastbound morning departure at 7:55am with the remaining evening departures spread from 6:50pm to 11:55pm. This higher frequency operation is a core part of BA’s route “product” and likely generates significant yield premiums.

Yet the fleet of only twelve A380s is still relatively small compared to its 59x B777s, 39x 787s, and 18x A350s, indicating that it’s still a niche aircraft for BA. As highlighted by their New York JFK operation it’s most useful on routes which don’t benefit significantly from higher frequency. At present, the A380 operates flights to (exclusive flights operated by joints venture parter):

• Boston: 1x daily alongside 2x daily B777

• Dallas: 1x daily

• Los Angeles: 1x daily alongside 2x daily B77W

• Miami: 1x daily

• San Fransisco: 1x daily alongside 1x daily B77W

• Singapore: 1x daily alongside 1x daily B789

• Washington: 1x daily alongside 1x daily B777

While an argument could be made for higher frequency operations to Boston and Washington, these relatively shorter routes with immediate turnarounds assist BA in increasing the A380’s utilisation.

Conclusion

Clearly the A380 serves an important purpose for BA. BA considered acquiring more A380s. In 2016, then CEO Willie Walsh confirmed they were considering leasing an addition six (e.g. speculation was that they were looking at Malaysian Airlines’s A380s). However, plans fell through due to the high refurbishment costs of standardising these aircraft to BA’s existing layout.

As we’re an Australian focused blog, we also want to understand the Australian context. Why does the A380 work so much better for BA than Qantas?

Firstly, Heathrow’s congestion is significantly worse than Sydney’s. Sydney is predominantly congested during peak times but has ample slot availability outside of peak times. Heathrow is congested all the time! While significant domestic expansion is limited by Sydney’s congestion, slots aren’t the constraint for Qantas adding new long haul flights.

Secondly, Qantas is less Sydney focused than BA is Heathrow focused, with scope to add long haul flights from Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth in addition to Sydney, something it has done in recent years. BA’s long haul alternative of Gatwick is almost nearly as congested as Heathrow, limiting it’s expansion scope there too.

Thirdly, Qantas’s route network is very different. Its Asian flights benefit from higher frequency operations utilising smaller aircraft while the cargo heavy nature of these routes reduces the A380s business case as it is a notoriously poor cargo carrier. While it has an ample payload on routes to/from Asia, its volumetric space is compromised by the large baggage load due to the higher passenger numbers. Conceptually, it has the same cargo space as a single deck aircraft but twice the passengers and thus twice the bags. Qantas’s growing ultra long haul network runs into payload limitations on the A380, limiting its use on flights like Perth-London, Melbourne/Sydney-Dallas, and Auckland-New York.

There are simply not that many routes that would benefit from the A380’s capacity. Historically, a lot of A380 flying focused on London and Los Angeles, but as London routes have transitioned to non-stop routes flown by the B787-9 and Los Angeles has suffered from weak demand due to the strong US Dollar, Qantas have found a diminishing use case for the A380. This led them to retiring two aircraft during the COVID-19 pandemic and forced them to come up with more creative network and scheduling solutions, including the switching the B787-9 for a lower frequency A380 service on the Sydney-Johannesburg route.

This doesn’t mean the A380 is a poor aircraft. For the right operator, it can be an incredibly profitable aircraft. This includes BA, and most certainly Emirates. However, it’s an aircraft filling a niche, and a very narrow niche at that!

Let us know what you think in the comments below!