Following the start of the start of the Iran War on 28 February 2026, travel between Australia and Europe has been severely disrupted. This includes the closure of airspace that has affected aircraft transiting the region (between Asia and Europe) and a significant loss of network capacity due to the temporary closure of important transit airports in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
The former has affected flights by Australian, European and Asian airlines that provide non-stop flights between Australia and Europe (e.g. Perth-London or Perth-Paris), or transit through airports in Southeast Asia (e.g. via Singapore or Kuala Lumpur). Qantas have had to reroute westbound non-stop flights via Singapore to mitigate larger payload restrictions due to longer routings, while transit carriers are suffering from longer and more expensive routings.
The latter has affected Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad that are continuing to play havoc with connecting networks and passengers’ risk aversion. In 2024, these three carriers accounted for 44% of Australia-UK traffic and 56% of Australia-Europe capacity. Needless to say, the loss of all of this capacity for several weeks, and the sustained loss of a significant portion of it since has resulted in large ongoing disruptions for Australia-Europe travel.
With the loss of this capacity travellers had to reroute. It is incredibly difficult for airlines to shift long haul capacity quickly and doing so will simply disrupt other passengers. They simply don’t have spare aircraft sitting around just in case.
Anecdotally, we heard stories of passengers utilising unusual routings, whether that be London-Johannesburg-Sydney or via the United States. Routings via the US provided a useful solution since there is significant existing capacity between the countries. Furthermore, the disruption occurred during a shoulder season between the norther and summer summers, and in a market that has had seen significant capacity growth combined with demand weakness in recent years.
These routes are not without their challenges as routings are significantly longer and costly via the US, and travellers must clear US immigration even when transiting, however it provided a temporary solution given capacity constraints.
Not known to exaggerate, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told CNBC in March that they’d seen an increase in the number of passengers traveling between Australia, New Zealand and Europe via the US, increasing from “less than one a day” a year before to more than 1000 a day. It’s likely an exaggeration, but it’s noteworthy nonetheless. United only carried an average of 2,258 passengers per day between Australia and the US in March 2025.
We now have ample data to test just how much of an effect the conflict has had on Australia-US traffic. Which airlines benefited and how much of the shift has been sustained?