Where does Qantas's European network go from here?
Note: We’ve pushed this article out quickly due to schedule changes occurring while we were writing. It’s correct as of 4pm Thursday 26 March. Please excuse any clumsiness or errors. We’ll update in the coming days.
Global air travel has been significantly impacted by the outbreak of the Middle East conflict on 28 February 2026. The closure of airspace in multiple countries led to the temporary grounding of several Middle Eastern airlines and disruptions to flights that transited through affected airspace.
While the affected airlines have attempted to mitigate disruptions, the impact continues to be felt a month later. During some previous analyses over the last month we’d framed mitigation strategies around disruptions “persisting”, and it’s fair to say that things are certainly persisting!
A unique challenge for Australia is the significant impact that these disruptions have had, and continue to have on travel between Australia and Europe. This is ultimately due to the dominance of Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways (ME3) on these routes. We’ve previously highlighted how the ME3 accounted for more than 50% of the total Australia-Europe market in recent years.
With the ME3 running a skeleton operation with very little connecting traffic passing through their hubs, and passengers showing significant risk aversion to flying through Abu Dhabi, Doha and Dubai, there’s a significant capacity crunch occurring. Australia-Europe isn’t the only market affected, with the same constraints affecting most east-west traffic between Europe and Asia.
Why is Australia-Europe so important?
According to ABS data, 3.6 million people traveled between Australia and Europe in 2025, with approximately 44% traveling between the Australia and the UK and Ireland. The remaining 56% were fragmented across Europe, with Italy and France the next largest markets accounting 11% and 9%, respectively.
The market is marginally dominated by outward bound travel, with 54% comprising Australian residents and 46% foreign visitors. This varies significantly when considering the UK and Ireland separately to the rest of Europe. Outward bound travel accounts for 46% of the UK and Ireland market, whereas Australians account for 61% of travel between Australia and the rest of Europe.
The distribution/fragmentation of the outbound market also varies, with the UK and Ireland only accounting for 37% of travel by Australian residents. Italy and France comprise 16% and 9%, whereas Greece is a significant 8% of the market.
This has turned Europe-Asia into the bottleneck in Australia-Europe travel. There is ample capacity available between Australia and Asia, but simply no seats available between Asia and Europe. For example, there are seats available on nearly all of Cathay Pacific and Qantas’s flights between Australia and Hong Kong over the next week (Friday 27 March though Thursday 2 April), but not a single seat available on any of Cathay and British Airways’s flights between Hong Kong and London over the same period (other than the odd spattering of full fare first tickets). Similar patterns are found through other Asian hubs to most European cities.
Impact on Qantas
Qantas have already run into several challenges. Firstly, they move a significant amount of European traffic through their Emirates joint venture (it’s not just a codeshare). Ultimately, passengers that they are ticketing are their responsibility and are having to find alternative routings to get them to their destination.
They have limited redundancy capacity to/from Europe, with daily flights from Perth and Sydney to London, 3x/week Perth-Paris flights, and 3-4x/week seasonal Perth-Rome flights that are only due to recommence from the start of May.
Qantas’s European flights:
QF9/10 Perth-London Heathrow (Daily) non-stop B787-9
QF1/2 Sydney-Singapore-London Heathrow (Daily) A380
QF33/34 Sydney-Perth-Paris (3x/week) non-stop B787-9
QF5/6 Sydney-Perth-Rome (3-4x/week; seasonal) non-stop B787-9
As noted, redundancy capacity through Asia is also limited given the significant capacity bottleneck it now represents. It’s been widely reported that a lot of traffic is now routing through the US, despite the practical challenges as international transit passengers are required to clear US immigration.
Qantas have also had to reroute its non-stop Perth-London flight via Singapore as airspace closures have increased flying time and compounding payload restrictions. Without the fuel stop in Singapore on the westbound leg, the additional payload restrictions would limit passenger uplift significantly. We covered this is a detailed post a few days ago.
Qantas have been on record to indicate that they are considering options to add extra capacity to Europe, so we thought we’d look at the options they might consider. There are lots of rumours going around what they might do and while some of these link to the options we look at, the purpose of this post isn’t to test the veracity of them, rather to consider the relative challenges they face.
Option 1: Increased frequency on Perth-Paris/Rome
The first, and possibly simplest option would be to increase frequency on existing Perth-Europe flights. At present, Perth-Paris operates 3x/week year round with on a B787-9 aircraft, originating in Sydney (QF33/34), while Perth-Rome operates seasonally 3-4x/week, also originating in Sydney (QF5/6) and operated with a B787-9 aircraft. Notably, the Rome flight will run a longer season this year, also with an earlier start date, significantly increasing capacity over last year. This increase was already announced last year, and isn’t a reaction to current events.
While additional flights could be added on an ad hoc basis without significant network changes elsewhere, sustained increases in frequency will require the B787-9 to be taken off other services. This would either require reduced frequencies on other routes, or switching other B787-9 flights to other aircraft.
During the NS2026 season, other B787-9 flights include (excluding European flights):
Brisbane-Los Angeles (daily)
Melbourne-Dallas (3-4x/week)
Melbourne-Los Angeles (5x/week with remaining 2x/week A380)
Sydney-Vancouver (3-4x/week)
Sydney-San Fransisco (3x/week)
Sydney-Auckland-New York (5x/week)
Sydney-Santiago (4x/week)
One option could be to switch BNE-LAX back to the A330-200 which operated the route after the COVID pandemic until last year, however this would be unpopular with customers. The A330-200 wouldn’t be viable on other routes as it would incur even larger payload restrictions than on BNE-LAX.
An alternative could be American Airlines taking over BNE-LAX to enable B787-9 reallocation to Europe. Notably, Qantas and AA did this recently with AA operating BNE-LAX 3x/week with B787-9s in December 2025 and January 2026 to enable Qantas to reduce frequency from daily to 4x/week and redeploying the aircraft to increase the frequency of MEL-DFW from 4x/week to daily during the same period. On the presumption that AA would have sufficient capacity this would be an elegant solution, although it’s a much easier ask during the southern hemisphere summer. The northern hemisphere summer is AA’s peak long haul season with a greater emphasis on deploying their own capacity to Europe.
Option 2: Add additional London flight via Asia
Another straight forward option would be to add another London flight, similar to adding more Paris or Rome flights. For example, a return of Melbourne-Singapore-London. This could be operate by the B787-9 or A380, requiring some additional aircraft time, however this would require less additional time than additional Perth-Europe flights as the Melbourne-Singapore (and return) sectors would presumably replace existing QF35/36/37/38 sectors. In doing so it has a somewhat smaller opportunity cost.
Routing through Singapore would present the best opportunities for network effects with existing connections, similar to the manner in which QF1/2 already operates. Qantas would have little problem with traffic rights at Singapore, while Heathrow slots could be temporarily sourced from any number of Gulf airlines who are currently not utilising their Heathrow slots (let’s just assume their joint venture partner Emirates).
Option 3: Switch Perth-London to A380
Another solution would be to increase capacity on the existing Perth-London flights by switching the B787-9 to the A380. At present, the outbound leg is currently flying via Singapore to enable higher payloads that are being undermined by longer routings due to unavailability of European airspace. The fuel stop in Singapore is somewhat enforced, and adds significant time to the flight. QF9 was renumbered QF209 to reflect the retiming of the Perth departure from 7:15pm to 3:50pm, maintaining the arrival at Heathrow at 5:05am.
QF9 PER-LHR 7:15pm 5:05am
QF10 LHR-PER 11:50am 12:30pmQF209 PER-SIN-LHR 3:50pm 5:05am
QF10 LHR-PER 11:50am 12:30pm
The return QF10 remains unchanged, operating non-stop and with the same schedule. This generates downstream challenges with the earlier departure from Perth potentially undermining connecting traffic from the east coast, and limiting options to rotate aircraft to/from the eastcoast.
Switching from the B787-9 to the A380 would generate a large increase in capacity. Furthermore, there is somewhat more redundancy capacity in the A380 fleet compared to the B787-9 fleet. But there are some externalities, and a very big one: the return leg (QF10) wouldn’t likely be able to operate non-stop. At 16.5 hours it would require large payload restrictions. Comparatively, westbound QF8 DFW-SYD is Qantas’s longest A380 sector and is slightly shorter, typically coming in just above 16 hours, however this sector is notoriously payload restricted and QF10 would generate larger payload restrictions, nevermind the need to carry more fuel due to lack of nearby alternates for the A380 at Perth. As we see with the outbound leg, adding the fuel stop adds a lot of additional time (3.5 hours on the outbound leg). Taking the same departure from Heathrow would push the arrival at Perth from 11:45am to 3:15pm.
This would be catastrophic since the current combination of QF9/10 and even QF219/10 ultimately required two aircraft for a daily service. Switching to the A380 and adding a fuel stop in Singapore on the return leg would mean the aircraft arrives at Perth at 3:15pm with an outbound departure of 3:50pm meaning it would require 3 A380s to operate. This means that the B787-9s that might come off Perth-London wouldn’t be able to replace the A380s it displaces elsewhere on a one-for-one basis.
But something magical has happened. Just today we’ve seen that Qantas have retimed QF219’s Perth departure to 7:35pm with London arrival now 10:05am. The flight number has subsequently been changed again, this time to QF219. Once again, QF10 remains non-stop with an unchanged schedule. This change is effective from 29 March, coinciding with the start of the IATA NS2026 season. This has neccesitated a change in their Heathrow arrival slot, likely affected through a temporary slot swap with another airline or a temporary dispensation from the slot coordinator. Eiether way, this likely explains why the retiming of the Heathrow slot coincides with the start of the IATA NS2026 season.
QF9 PER-LHR 7:15pm 5:05am
QF10 LHR-PER 11:50am 12:30pmQF209 PER-SIN-LHR 3:50pm 5:05am
QF10 LHR-PER 11:50am 12:30pmQF219 PER-SIN-LHR 7:35pm 10:05am
QF10 LHR-PER 11:50am 12:30pm
The retiming reclaims ground time at LHR, allowing improvement of connectivity at Perth (or at least allowing the original connectivity to return). Furthermore, it gives Qantas better options to rotate aircraft to/from east coast.
But this opens the door to the A380. This is pure speculation: what if QF10 were to be replaced with the A380 and a fuel stop in Singapore introduced? Let’s call it QF210 and assume it adds 3.5 hours flight time.
This would put QF210 arriving in Perth at 4:00pm, allowing departure as QF219 at 7:35pm. While there are some connectivity issues related to the later departures, it would now require 2 A380s instead of 3. This would allow a straight swap between the B787-9 and the A380 on other routes (e.g. SYD-DFW/JNB/LAX/SIN)
Furthermore, aircraft rotation to/from the east coast is not a challenge as it could rotate with the QF1/2 aircraft at Heathrow, similar to how Qantas typically rotate B787s and A330s at other outstations (e.g. AKL, DFW, LAX, SIN).
So this is doable? Well, there’s one big catch. Qantas’s Perth terminal doesn’t have A380 capable gates and utilising the A380 would mean operate to/from T1, undermining connections and lounge options. Ironically, the emphasis that Qantas have had on engagements with Perth Airport regarding the importance of operating their international flights to/from the Qantas terminal would almost preclude this. But desperate times call for desperate measures?
Option 4: Extend Australia-North America flights to Europe
The most complex and even risky would be to extend one of existing North American flights onward to London. This has several challenges and options. At present, their North American network looks as follows:
BNE-LAX (daily)
MEL-DFW (3-4x/week)
MEL-LAX (daily)
SYD-AKL-JFK (5x/week)
SYD-DFW (daily)
SYD-HNL (5x/week)
SYD-LAX (daily)
SYD-SFO (3x/week)
SYD-YVR (3-4x/week)
Each option has its own idiosyncrasies. Firstly, we might remind readers that the US doesn’t have international airside connectivity meaning that connecting passengers much clear US immigration. That creates a range of externalities and even risks. In the past, some US airports had an international transit lounge meaning that same flight passengers didn’t have to clear immigration, however it seems as though this is no longer available. While passengers don’t have to collect bags and clear customs, passenger need to clear immigration and would require an ESTA or visa.
Secondly, it’s not operationally practical on all routes. We can exclude SYD-HNL since it would require a change from the A330 currently operating on the route, and also SYD-AKL-JFK since this would imply a 2-stop route to LHR.
To some extent, we might exclude SYD-SFO/YVR since its only operated 3x/week and wouldn’t generate any network effects without and BNE/MEL-SFO/YVR connections, making BNE/MEL-LHR a 2-stop itinerary. Another consideration for YVR would be the bilateral arrangement. The 1988 Australia-Canada air service agreement doesn’t make provision for points beyond Canada. However, this agreement has recently been updated, and while reported as an open skies agreement that enters into force at the end of March 2026, it’s not clear whether this is an open skies agreement that would allow points beyond Canada or just moving to unlimited frequencies (e.g. similar to Australia-Singapore that doesn’t have any capacity constraints, but still limits intermediate and points beyond).
That leaves us with DFW and LAX. Let’s presume the option is to extend SYD-DFW or SYD-LAX to LHR. Both operate daily with the A380, proving Qantas with a large capacity platform. LAX provides daily connecting feed from both BNE and MEL, while DFW only less than daily from MEL. Furthermore, the westbound DFW-SYD leg operates under significant payload restrictions, limiting the incremental capacity it might provide.
And finally, assuming LAX is the most practical option due to connectivity to/from BNE, MEL and SYD, a final challenge is the lack of schedule coordination between these flights. For example, if the SYD-LAX flight were to continue to London it would be too early for BNE connections, and far too late for MEL connections. This would require multiple pieces to be rescheduled.
QF11 SYD-LAX 5:50pm 2:30pm
QF15 BNE-LAX 8:35pm 4:30pm
QF93 MEL-LAX 9:45pm 7:05amQF16 LAX-BNE 10:10pm 5:00am
QF94 LAX-MEL 9:50pm 6:45am
QF12 LAX-SYD 11:30pm 7:30am
Thus, we’re heavily discounting the US option due to the lack of connectivity, scheduling challenges and challenges with respect to international transit passengers needing to clear US immigration.
No need to speculate, here’s the answer
Correct as of 4pm Thursday 26 March:
Just as we were finishing this up we began to notice a number of schedule updates appearing, so no need speculate any further. These are schedule updates now showing and on sale!
Rome: Perth-Rome was due to recommence in early May with 3x/week flights, increasing to 4x/week from late June until late September. Instead, it will operate daily between 18 May and 26 July, with select flights not originating in Sydney.
Paris: Paris flights will increase from 3/x to 4x/week between 20 April and 17 May. Westbound routing will operate Sydney-Singapore-Paris, excluding Perth, although its uncertain whether this routing only applies to the additional flight or all flights. Sydney-Singapore-Paris is now QF233, while Sydney-Perth-Paris remains QF33. Eastbound routing remains unchanged.
From 18 May to 26 July, Paris increases to 5x/week and operating via Singapore in both directions, thus operating as Sydney-Singapore-Paris, and vice versa, excluding Perth.
To accommodate the additional B787 flying time on the Rome and Paris routes, Brisbane-Los Angeles will switch back to the A330-200 during the affected period, while some domestic A330 flying has been replaced with narrowbody aircraft to free up the A330s for Brisbane-Los Angeles. Flights to London will remain unchanged with the Perth-London flight continuing to operate westbound via Singapore, and non-stop on the return.
Apologies for any typos or inconsistencies, but we’re pushed this out a little quicker than expected! We’ll update it later!