Last week, Qantas inaugurated the first Sydney-Perth-Paris flight (QF 33/34), adding a third European destination to its burgeoning Perth hub. This follows the the success of Melbourne-Perth-London that began in early 2018 (QF 9/10), and the seasonal Sydney-Perth-Rome seasonal flight that began in 2022 (QF 5/6). Somewhat lost in the fanfare was that the additional of Sydney-Perth-Paris coincided with the removal of the Melbourne leg from QF 9/10.
With PS in 2026, do you see the Perth Hub being used for niche European routes that are not feasible from a single eastern states city, by funnelling eastern states traffic through Perth make niche routes possible?
Hard to say at this stage. It probably depends on how well CDG does and how LHR performs with mopping up the MEL capacity. If these perform well then they might reconsider FRA. The counterfactual though is that CDG gets shifted to a non-stop from SYD from 2026.
What's fascinating is that this wasn't the plan when PS was first conceptualised. MEL-PER-LHR was seen as a stopgap whereas PER-LHR is now established in its own right. Doubtful that FCO and CDG would be the same without the east coast feed.
Either way, this doesn't affect the PER hub concept. PS has evolved and it isn't one or the other, i.e. not PS or PER. PS will still be a niche focus while core PER traffic (e.g. LHR, JNB, etc) will help develop the hub.
With only 12 A350-1000s ordered for PS and 2 already allocated to replace the 787-9s on the PER/LHR route.
Will Qantas have the ability offer more than LHR and JFK from SYD and MEL. You would assume that there would atleast be demand for a daily service from SYD and MEL to JFK and LHR.
Also where do you think the A380s on the SIN to LHR route will be redeployed. I know this is over 2 years away, but if PS was tomorrow, where do you think the 380s would go?
I like your framing: if PS was tomorrow! This is important since markets evolve over time, as we saw with PER-LHR!
It's not a fait accompli that PER-LHR switches to PS A350-1000s. It's been speculated, but very dependent on capacity needs and passenger mix. Could remain B787-9 or even non-PS A350-1000.
PS A350-1000s: it depends on how they schedule SYD/MEL-JFK/LHR as to how many aircraft they need. Doesn't have to run daily either. All four daily could be as few as 8 aircraft (just following existing SYD-AKL-JFK and PER-LHR schedules)! It's also likely that PS A350-1000 might also find their way into Asia for shorter segments to maintain utilisation similarly to how the B787-9 finds it way onto HND, HNL and SIN at times.
I don't see these displacing a lot of A380 flying. I'd expect SIN-LHR to remain, maybe not from SYD and maybe not A380 though. SYD/MEL-LAX and JNB-LAX remain, but we'll see A380 a lot more throughout Asia, including SIN and HKG.
Great article!
With PS in 2026, do you see the Perth Hub being used for niche European routes that are not feasible from a single eastern states city, by funnelling eastern states traffic through Perth make niche routes possible?
Hard to say at this stage. It probably depends on how well CDG does and how LHR performs with mopping up the MEL capacity. If these perform well then they might reconsider FRA. The counterfactual though is that CDG gets shifted to a non-stop from SYD from 2026.
What's fascinating is that this wasn't the plan when PS was first conceptualised. MEL-PER-LHR was seen as a stopgap whereas PER-LHR is now established in its own right. Doubtful that FCO and CDG would be the same without the east coast feed.
Either way, this doesn't affect the PER hub concept. PS has evolved and it isn't one or the other, i.e. not PS or PER. PS will still be a niche focus while core PER traffic (e.g. LHR, JNB, etc) will help develop the hub.
Thanks for the detailed reply.
With only 12 A350-1000s ordered for PS and 2 already allocated to replace the 787-9s on the PER/LHR route.
Will Qantas have the ability offer more than LHR and JFK from SYD and MEL. You would assume that there would atleast be demand for a daily service from SYD and MEL to JFK and LHR.
Also where do you think the A380s on the SIN to LHR route will be redeployed. I know this is over 2 years away, but if PS was tomorrow, where do you think the 380s would go?
I like your framing: if PS was tomorrow! This is important since markets evolve over time, as we saw with PER-LHR!
It's not a fait accompli that PER-LHR switches to PS A350-1000s. It's been speculated, but very dependent on capacity needs and passenger mix. Could remain B787-9 or even non-PS A350-1000.
PS A350-1000s: it depends on how they schedule SYD/MEL-JFK/LHR as to how many aircraft they need. Doesn't have to run daily either. All four daily could be as few as 8 aircraft (just following existing SYD-AKL-JFK and PER-LHR schedules)! It's also likely that PS A350-1000 might also find their way into Asia for shorter segments to maintain utilisation similarly to how the B787-9 finds it way onto HND, HNL and SIN at times.
I don't see these displacing a lot of A380 flying. I'd expect SIN-LHR to remain, maybe not from SYD and maybe not A380 though. SYD/MEL-LAX and JNB-LAX remain, but we'll see A380 a lot more throughout Asia, including SIN and HKG.