Is the Jetstar to Sri Lanka rumour credible?
We hate speculation and we really hate speculation surrounding new routes. Many (most) rumours are simply implausible but it’s difficult to convey this to our Armchair CEO Caleb who heard about the new route from his mate down the pub who was told about it by his uncle’s friend who was a pilot for Ansett. As Brandolini’s law teaches us: “The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.”
We prefer to follow the data rather than rumours, speculation and 3rd hand accounts. We like to consider the data in an analytic framework to test whether the rumour is plausible and even viable. Call it a smell test, but we can try and use the data to answer some simple questions:
Does the underlying demand or network flows support the potential route?
Is it operationally possible from a fleet availability or aircraft performance perspective?
What is the airline’s history on the route and what have they been saying?
What is the opportunity cost or trade-off?
We can’t always answer all these questions as we often won’t have enough data, but using the framework is a very helpful smell test!
For example, a few months ago there was a rumour that Qantas are planning to start two Brazilian routes, the first during the 2nd half of 2026 with Rio being flown as an extension of the Sydney-Santiago flight on the B787-9, and during the 2nd half of 2027, a non-stop to Sao Paulo on the A350. We immediately discounted the rumour utilising this framework, for example:
In the 2024/25 year, the total Australia-Brazil market was 68,400 inbound passengers, amounting to an average of 187/day (according to ABS data). This is relatively small and compounded by Brazilian point-of-sale bias (ABS data tells us 62% are visitors and only 38% Australian residents). Furthermore, Brazil is covered through Qantas’s codeshare partnership with LATAM with competition from other stopover carriers limited by geography.
Fleet time on the B787-9 is scarce and even precious, and whenever B787-9 time has become available in recent years it’s quickly been applied to Europe (SYD-PER-FCO/CDG) and North America (e.g. SYD-YVR, BNE-LAX and MEL-DFW). Furthermore, the additional block time as an onward leg from Santiago to Rio would require a reorganisation of the schedule adding 11 hours block time.
The 1st A350 is arriving in late 2026 with deployment on non-stop Sydney-London from the start of the NS27 season (end of March 2027). Non-stop Sydney-London will require at least 3 aircraft, and with the 4th A350 expected by end of FY27, it seems unlikely that something like Sydney-Sao Paulo would be flown in 2027 and prioritised over non-stop Sydney-London, Melbourne-London and Sydney/Melbourne-New York. The latter routes are what Qantas have been telling us they’ll be flying.
Enough ranting, what about Jetstar and Sri Lanka?
So back to the rumour: Jetstar will start Melbourne-Colombo with 3x/week flights on the B787-8 on 28 August 2026.
It appeared on social media a few weeks ago, published by a Sri Lankan source. And it’s very specific which can be a sign of credibility or equally of a clever charlatan, so lets take a look and see if it ticks the boxes:
At a group level, Qantas currently access Colombo through a codeshare on SriLankan Airlines and Cathay Pacific (QF code on UL and CX). Interestingly, they don’t codeshare on SriLankan’s non-stop flights from Melbourne and Sydney to Colombo, preferring to carry their passengers on their own flights to Singapore and Hong Hong and codesharing on SriLankan’s flights from Singapore and Cathay Pacific’s flights from Hong Kong.
Furthermore, between November 2024 and their closing, Jetstar Asia flew 5x/week Singapore-Colombo with a split schedule to provide efficient connections to/from Qantas and Jetstar’s Australian flights at Singapore. We previously argued that most of Jetstar Asia’s lost connecting capacity was covered by Jetstar’s increasing direct capacity into Asia (e.g. significant increases in flights to Bangkok and Phuket) or through partnerships (e.g. Malaysia Airlines codeshare). While the latter is also true for Sri Lanka given the codeshares with SriLankan and Cathay, it reinforces the group’s previous interest in servicing Colombo on their own metal. And Jetstar have teased a route to Sri Lanka when speaking about the B787 refurbishment.
The timeline also aligns with Jetstar’s B787 refurbishment plan. One of the significant limitations of Jetstar’s long haul ambitions is the lack of crew rest areas on the B787-8. With westbound Melbourne-Colombo running at about 10.5 hours, crew rest facilities will be a much needed boost. According to Qantas’s full year results presentation, Jetstar expect the first refurbished B787-8 with crew rest installed around April 2026. We’re not 100% sure if this is when work starts or will be completed, but it’s likely that even if this is the start, there will be more than one frame ready by August.
Some might question if Jetstar have fleet availability given that the B787 fleet is very well utilised at present. We can assess future fleet availability by comparing the schedules for September 2025 and 2026 (first full month after the proposed start date). Looking at ADS-B data, Jetstar operated 269 return B787 long haul sectors during September 2025, accounting for 269 of 330 available fleet days (Jetstar have 11x B787s and September 30 days). Furthermore, 25 days were occupied by heavy maintenance (excluding normal line and base maintenance). For September 2026, the currently loaded schedule shows 274 scheduled return B787 long haul sectors. This doesn’t suggest that there’s much scope, but there’s a catch! During September 2025, Jetstar operated 12x return Sydney-Honolulu sectors that have since been cancelled. While it’s difficult to predict heavy maintenance schedule, the Sydney-Honolulu fleet time matches the need for 3x/week Melbourne-Colombo, even if an aircraft is assumed to be in heavy maintenance.
The final consideration is the market? It’s all good and well arguing that the group would like to replace the lost Jetstar Asia capacity and that there’s fleet availability, but the economics of a longer non-stop routes dictate a substantial market need. Also, why Melbourne? Is there anything in this that suggests more credibility than if the rumour were flights from Brisbane, Perth or Sydney? This requires a more detailed examination and as usual, we brought the receipts …
Australia-Sri Lanka in numbers
The Australia-Sri Lanka market has grown consistently over the last decade and a half, from just 47,310 in 2009/10 to 170,520 in 2024/25, and increase of 260%. Notably, growth has been led by outbound travel from Australia to Sri Lanka, increasing by 90,500 per year (32,800 to 123,300 per year) compared to 32,710 by inbound travel from Sri Lanka to Australia (14,510 to 47,220 per year). This growing outbound demand is driven by a large Sri Lankan immigrant community in Australia (more about that later).
As previously mentioned, SriLankan Airlines already operates to Australia. At present, the market is served by daily Colombo-Melbourne and 4x/week Colombo-Sydney flights. They are a relatively new entrant to the market, having begun flying to Australia in 2017.
As they’re the only airline flying direct flights between Australia and Sri Lanka, they represent the entirety of the BITRE passenger flows on the route. As the figure below shows, prior to the pandemic passenger arrivals on direct flights between Australia and Sri Lanka were smaller than the total arrivals estimated by the ABS data. This indicates that a net transit of passengers via third countries (e.g. Singapore and Hong Kong). However, in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, this trend reversed as SriLankan Airlines were (anecdotally reported to have been) carrying significant net transit traffic to India. This trend how now normalised. Further, demand for travel between Australia and Sri Lanka shows far greater seasonality than direct passenger flows.
This is visualised more easily by showing just the monthly net transit figures (i.e. the difference between ABS and BITRE on a monthly basis). While the market has normalised, there’s a significant reliance on 3rd country transit for travel between Australia and Sri Lanka. It’s important to remember that these data represent net transit, so offsetting onward connections (e.g. onwards from Colombo to India, or onwards from Melbourne to Auckland). For example, in January 2025, there were 10,123 net transit passengers of 23,770 total arrivals. Meanwhile, a 3x/week Jetstar flight would provide a little more than 4,000 seats each month, highlighting that additional direct capacity can be absorbed. So the market is probably substantial enough, although that doesn’t imply anything about yields and the financial viabilty.
And Melbourne?
This is the point that closes the deal. As previously mentioned, there is a considerable Sri Lankan immigrant community in Australia. ABS data shows 172,800 Sri Lankan born residents in Australia in 2024, making it the 10th largest foreign born population and accounting for 2% of the foreign born population of Australia.
Furthermore, the Sri Lankan community in Australia is well-established and holds substantial ties to the old country. 63% of the Sri Lankan born population has been in Australia since before 2011, so much more established than more recent migration waves from China, India or the Philippines. This highlights the high proportion of VFR traffic that would be more consistent over time than purely outbound Australian tourism. So it’s not just about young Aussies going to find themselves while surfing in Arugam Bay.
The 2021 census data helps us understand this further, indicating that 51% of the Sri Lankan born population in Australia resides in Victoria (for our foreign readers, Melbourne is the capital of Victoria). By comparison, New South Wales (Sydney) and Queensland (Brisbane) account for 24% and 9%, respectively, highlighting why SriLankan airlines favour Melbourne over Sydney, and reinforcing the credibility of the rumour.
So yes, the rumour is plausible
We probably wouldn’t bet on it happening, but the rumour seems plausible. It’s possible that Jetstar have had discussions with local authorities which included substantive discussions about timelines and schedules. This could easily be misinterpreted as a commitment (call it broken telephone). However, such details are typically only discussed when planning is at an advanced stage.
But why hasn’t it been announced? Most carriers have already loaded schedules for August and September 2026, and even Jetstar have loaded their August and September schedules. So if it’s credible, why haven’t they just announced the route yet?
New routes to countries a carrier doesn’t operate to can be more complex than just adding capacity. In addition to negotiating with multiple local service providers, carriers are increasingly seeking (financial) assistance from local authorities and route development agencies to support start-up costs and/or provide incentives. Jetstar are no different and they may just be seeking to maximise these prior to announcing. Once you announce, your leverage is lost!
Love coming back to this and reading the great analysis after the flights have been announced!